Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-45.2% vs 30d avg of 56.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $110 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.4 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$600 (150.0%) on $400 risked, vs +$1,435 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 10.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21
+$600
+150.0% on $400 risked
Max Profit
+$600
If the stock โฅ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$400
Net debit
Break-even
$104.00
+3.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
27.2 / -0.78 / 1.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | -$373 | -$390 | -$399 | -$400 |
| $86 (-15%) | -$333 | -$364 | -$393 | -$400 |
| $91 (-10%) | -$260 | -$303 | -$361 | -$400 |
| $96 (-5%) | -$155 | -$196 | -$268 | -$400 |
| $99 (-2%) | -$79 | -$111 | -$172 | -$400 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | -$26 | -$48 | -$94 | -$335 |
| $103 (+2%) | +$29 | +$18 | -$7 | -$134 |
| $106 (+5%) | +$112 | +$118 | +$129 | +$168 |
| $111 (+10%) | +$242 | +$274 | +$334 | +$600 |
| $115 (+14%) โ target | +$337 | +$382 | +$458 | +$600 |
| $121 (+20%) | +$437 | +$484 | +$550 | +$600 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.