Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-45.2% vs 30d avg of 56.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $100.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $110 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.4 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $110 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$1,175 (12.0%) on $9,825 risked, vs +$935 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $110 by Aug 21
+$1,175
+12.0% on $9,825 risked
Max Profit
+$1,175
If the stock โฅ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$9,825
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$98.25
-2.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.06 / 3.7 / -15.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | -$1,778 | -$1,774 | -$1,773 | -$1,773 |
| $86 (-15%) | -$1,289 | -$1,275 | -$1,270 | -$1,270 |
| $91 (-10%) | -$818 | -$786 | -$768 | -$766 |
| $96 (-5%) | -$383 | -$324 | -$277 | -$263 |
| $99 (-2%) | -$145 | -$69 | +$5 | +$39 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | +$89 | +$181 | +$240 |
| $103 (+2%) | +$137 | +$235 | +$346 | +$441 |
| $106 (+5%) | +$321 | +$431 | +$567 | +$743 |
| $110 (+9%) โ target | +$540 | +$661 | +$813 | +$1,175 |
| $116 (+15%) | +$757 | +$873 | +$1,013 | +$1,175 |
| $121 (+20%) | +$885 | +$987 | +$1,095 | +$1,175 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.