Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 31.3% โ LOW
(-45.1% vs 30d avg of 56.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $96 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $100 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.55 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $96 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.95 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $96 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$290 (111.7%) on $260 risked, vs $-465 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 24.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $96. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $96 by Aug 21
+$290
+111.7% on $260 risked
Max Profit
+$282
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$260
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$101.54
+0.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.74 / 0.05 / 4.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | +$112 | +$118 | +$117 | +$108 |
| $86 (-15%) | +$105 | +$120 | +$133 | +$119 |
| $91 (-10%) | +$85 | +$107 | +$140 | +$165 |
| $96 (-5%) โ target | +$44 | +$65 | +$102 | +$298 |
| $99 (-2%) | +$18 | +$34 | +$64 | +$142 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | -$3 | +$9 | +$29 | +$45 |
| $103 (+2%) | -$26 | -$19 | -$10 | -$34 |
| $106 (+5%) | -$59 | -$60 | -$67 | -$123 |
| $111 (+10%) | -$113 | -$125 | -$149 | -$207 |
| $116 (+15%) | -$158 | -$175 | -$203 | -$242 |
| $121 (+20%) | -$193 | -$211 | -$234 | -$255 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.