Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-46.8% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$897 (148.8%) on $603 risked, vs +$1,435 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21
+$897
+148.8% on $603 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$603
Premium paid
Break-even
$106.03
+5.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.55 / -4.7 / 16.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | -$573 | -$593 | -$602 | -$603 |
| $86 (-15%) | -$520 | -$564 | -$596 | -$603 |
| $91 (-10%) | -$416 | -$489 | -$563 | -$603 |
| $96 (-5%) | -$244 | -$342 | -$460 | -$603 |
| $99 (-2%) | -$104 | -$210 | -$344 | -$603 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | +$5 | -$104 | -$242 | -$538 |
| $103 (+2%) | +$125 | +$16 | -$119 | -$337 |
| $106 (+5%) | +$326 | +$222 | +$100 | -$35 |
| $111 (+10%) | +$710 | +$622 | +$531 | +$469 |
| $115 (+14%) โ target | +$1,073 | +$1,001 | +$936 | +$897 |
| $121 (+20%) | +$1,599 | +$1,546 | +$1,504 | +$1,475 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.