Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-45.2% vs 30d avg of 56.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $89 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $89 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$620 (129.2%) on $480 risked, vs $-1,165 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $89. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $89 by Aug 21
+$620
+129.2% on $480 risked
Max Profit
+$9,520
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$480
Premium paid
Break-even
$95.20
-5.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.62 / -4.13 / 16.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | +$1,421 | +$1,426 | +$1,442 | +$1,468 |
| $86 (-15%) | +$972 | +$953 | +$945 | +$965 |
| $89 (-12%) โ target | +$693 | +$653 | +$618 | +$620 |
| $91 (-10%) | +$574 | +$525 | +$475 | +$461 |
| $96 (-5%) | +$244 | +$171 | +$77 | -$42 |
| $99 (-2%) | +$82 | +$1 | -$109 | -$344 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | -$10 | -$94 | -$207 | -$480 |
| $103 (+2%) | -$91 | -$175 | -$285 | -$480 |
| $106 (+5%) | -$192 | -$271 | -$370 | -$480 |
| $111 (+10%) | -$313 | -$377 | -$444 | -$480 |
| $116 (+15%) | -$388 | -$433 | -$470 | -$480 |
| $121 (+20%) | -$432 | -$460 | -$478 | -$480 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.