Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 31.3% โ LOW
(-45.1% vs 30d avg of 56.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $100.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $96 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.95 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $110 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$640 (6.2%) on $10,360 risked, vs +$935 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $110 by Aug 21
+$640
+6.2% on $10,360 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$760
Put floors you at $96
Break-even
$103.60
+2.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.44 / -3.31 / 14.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | -$777 | -$786 | -$783 | -$760 |
| $86 (-15%) | -$692 | -$729 | -$762 | -$760 |
| $91 (-10%) | -$539 | -$604 | -$683 | -$760 |
| $96 (-5%) | -$308 | -$387 | -$493 | -$760 |
| $99 (-2%) | -$132 | -$211 | -$316 | -$496 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$76 | -$173 | -$295 |
| $103 (+2%) | +$143 | +$71 | -$15 | -$94 |
| $106 (+5%) | +$375 | +$313 | +$247 | +$208 |
| $110 (+9%) โ target | +$738 | +$692 | +$652 | +$640 |
| $116 (+15%) | +$1,260 | +$1,233 | +$1,217 | +$1,215 |
| $121 (+20%) | +$1,740 | +$1,725 | +$1,718 | +$1,718 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.