Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 30.7% โ LOW
(-45.2% vs 30d avg of 56.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$380 (33.9%) on $1,120 risked, vs +$1,435 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Aug 21
+$380
+33.9% on $1,120 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,120
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$111.20
+10.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.52 / -8.61 / 33.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | +$813 | +$797 | +$802 | +$828 |
| $86 (-15%) | +$419 | +$354 | +$313 | +$325 |
| $91 (-10%) | +$126 | +$2 | -$124 | -$179 |
| $96 (-5%) | -$31 | -$204 | -$417 | -$682 |
| $99 (-2%) | -$53 | -$242 | -$487 | -$984 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | -$37 | -$231 | -$482 | -$1,055 |
| $103 (+2%) | +$3 | -$191 | -$438 | -$854 |
| $106 (+5%) | +$102 | -$82 | -$304 | -$552 |
| $111 (+10%) | +$364 | +$211 | +$52 | -$48 |
| $115 (+14%) โ target | +$660 | +$539 | +$431 | +$380 |
| $121 (+20%) | +$1,133 | +$1,050 | +$990 | +$958 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.