Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $130 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$915 (8.6%) on $-915 credit (max loss $10,585), vs +$746 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | -$1,217 | -$1,071 | -$897 | -$782 |
| $104 (-15%) | -$838 | -$662 | -$431 | -$169 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$510 | -$314 | -$44 | +$444 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$232 | -$26 | +$261 | +$915 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$88 | +$120 | +$405 | +$915 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$207 | +$487 | +$915 |
| $125 (+2%) | +$82 | +$286 | +$558 | +$915 |
| $129 (+5%) | +$192 | +$390 | +$646 | +$915 |
| $130 (+6%) โ target | +$229 | +$424 | +$673 | +$915 |
| $135 (+10%) | +$348 | +$532 | +$752 | +$915 |
| $141 (+15%) | +$474 | +$639 | +$820 | +$915 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$573 | +$718 | +$861 | +$915 |