Target Price Playground
SHOP
$164.44
🟡
SHOP IV: 61.0% — NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 68.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average — no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $165 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.23 · Δ 0.56
SHORT CALL · $180 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.49 · Δ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$926 (161.3%) on $574 risked, vs +$2,056 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $16,444. Options give 12.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $185 by Dec 18
+$926
+161.3% on $574 risked
Max Profit
+$926
If the stock ≥ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
−$574
Net debit
Break-even
$170.74
+3.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
13.87 / -0.44 / -1.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$376 | -$434 | -$519 | -$574 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$294 | -$352 | -$454 | -$574 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$200 | -$249 | -$350 | -$574 |
| $156 (-5%) | -$99 | -$131 | -$208 | -$574 |
| $161 (-2%) | -$36 | -$55 | -$108 | -$574 |
| $164 (0%) ← spot | +$7 | -$3 | -$37 | -$574 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$50 | +$49 | +$35 | -$301 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$113 | +$127 | +$145 | +$192 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$216 | +$253 | +$321 | +$926 |
| $185 (+13%) ← target | +$266 | +$313 | +$403 | +$926 |
| $189 (+15%) | +$313 | +$370 | +$478 | +$926 |
| $197 (+20%) | +$403 | +$475 | +$608 | +$926 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.