Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $110 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$70 (4.9%) on $1,430 risked, vs $-1,254 (-10.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $110 by Sep 18
+$70
+4.9% on $1,430 risked
Max Profit
+$11,070
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,430
Premium paid
Break-even
$110.70
-9.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.55 / -9.37 / 21.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | +$1,494 | +$1,386 | +$1,284 | +$1,267 |
| $104 (-15%) | +$1,049 | +$903 | +$739 | +$654 |
| $110 (-10%) โ target | +$667 | +$491 | +$268 | +$70 |
| $116 (-5%) | +$298 | +$95 | -$180 | -$571 |
| $120 (-2%) | +$109 | -$105 | -$400 | -$939 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | -$8 | -$227 | -$531 | -$1,184 |
| $125 (+2%) | -$117 | -$340 | -$650 | -$1,429 |
| $129 (+5%) | -$269 | -$495 | -$807 | -$1,430 |
| $135 (+10%) | -$490 | -$713 | -$1,012 | -$1,430 |
| $141 (+15%) | -$674 | -$887 | -$1,160 | -$1,430 |
| $147 (+20%) | -$826 | -$1,024 | -$1,260 | -$1,430 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.