Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.65 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $140 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns $-1,295 (-46.3%) on $2,795 risked, vs +$1,746 (14.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $140 by Sep 18
$-1,295
-46.3% on $2,795 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,795
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$97.05
-20.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.13 / -19.73 / 42.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | +$460 | +$210 | -$30 | -$98 |
| $104 (-15%) | +$182 | -$142 | -$506 | -$711 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$3 | -$393 | -$879 | -$1,324 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$94 | -$534 | -$1,118 | -$1,936 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$103 | -$565 | -$1,190 | -$2,304 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | -$92 | -$564 | -$1,208 | -$2,549 |
| $125 (+2%) | -$66 | -$546 | -$1,201 | -$2,794 |
| $129 (+5%) | -$2 | -$487 | -$1,146 | -$2,428 |
| $135 (+10%) | +$169 | -$311 | -$945 | -$1,816 |
| $140 (+14%) โ target | +$373 | -$91 | -$681 | -$1,295 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$722 | +$293 | -$215 | -$590 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.