Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.3 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $110 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$485 (94.2%) on $515 risked, vs $-1,254 (-10.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 9.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $110 by Sep 18
+$485
+94.2% on $515 risked
Max Profit
+$485
If the stock โค $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$515
Net debit
Break-even
$119.85
-2.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.54 / -0.65 / 1.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | +$277 | +$315 | +$387 | +$485 |
| $104 (-15%) | +$211 | +$241 | +$307 | +$485 |
| $110 (-10%) โ target | +$142 | +$161 | +$208 | +$485 |
| $116 (-5%) | +$66 | +$69 | +$81 | +$344 |
| $120 (-2%) | +$22 | +$15 | +$6 | -$24 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | -$7 | -$20 | -$44 | -$269 |
| $125 (+2%) | -$36 | -$54 | -$92 | -$514 |
| $129 (+5%) | -$77 | -$104 | -$161 | -$515 |
| $135 (+10%) | -$142 | -$181 | -$260 | -$515 |
| $141 (+15%) | -$200 | -$248 | -$340 | -$515 |
| $147 (+20%) | -$253 | -$306 | -$399 | -$515 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.