Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.65 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.4 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$275 (122.2%) on $225 risked, vs +$1,246 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 12.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18
+$275
+122.2% on $225 risked
Max Profit
+$275
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$225
Net debit
Break-even
$127.25
+3.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
5.63 / -0.12 / -0.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | -$153 | -$172 | -$203 | -$225 |
| $104 (-15%) | -$126 | -$144 | -$178 | -$225 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$94 | -$109 | -$142 | -$225 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$61 | -$70 | -$93 | -$225 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$40 | -$45 | -$60 | -$225 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | -$26 | -$28 | -$36 | -$225 |
| $125 (+2%) | -$12 | -$11 | -$12 | -$225 |
| $129 (+5%) | +$8 | +$14 | +$23 | +$142 |
| $135 (+10%) โ target | +$43 | +$56 | +$82 | +$275 |
| $141 (+15%) | +$73 | +$92 | +$130 | +$275 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$102 | +$126 | +$172 | +$275 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.