Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.26 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $115 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$671 (94.4%) on $711 risked, vs $-754 (-6.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 15.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $115 by Sep 18
+$671
+94.4% on $711 risked
Max Profit
+$659
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$630
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$127.73
+4.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.42 / 1.19 / 4.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | +$213 | +$256 | +$318 | +$325 |
| $104 (-15%) | +$179 | +$227 | +$310 | +$409 |
| $110 (-10%) | +$135 | +$183 | +$275 | +$547 |
| $115 (-6%) โ target | +$95 | +$140 | +$227 | +$696 |
| $116 (-5%) | +$83 | +$125 | +$209 | +$607 |
| $120 (-2%) | +$48 | +$85 | +$157 | +$393 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | +$56 | +$118 | +$265 |
| $125 (+2%) | -$1 | +$26 | +$77 | +$147 |
| $129 (+5%) | -$39 | -$20 | +$11 | -$9 |
| $135 (+10%) | -$103 | -$100 | -$102 | -$219 |
| $141 (+15%) | -$167 | -$179 | -$212 | -$376 |
| $147 (+20%) | -$229 | -$254 | -$312 | -$488 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.