Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $122.54 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$1,246 (10.2%) on $12,254 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18
+$1,246
+10.2% on $12,254 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$12,254
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$122.54
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 11 | Sep 10 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | -$2,451 | -$2,451 | -$2,451 |
| $104 (-15%) | -$1,838 | -$1,838 | -$1,838 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$1,225 | -$1,225 | -$1,225 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$613 | -$613 | -$613 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$245 | -$245 | -$245 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $125 (+2%) | +$245 | +$245 | +$245 |
| $129 (+5%) | +$613 | +$613 | +$613 |
| $135 (+10%) โ target | +$1,246 | +$1,246 | +$1,246 |
| $141 (+15%) | +$1,838 | +$1,838 | +$1,838 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$2,451 | +$2,451 | +$2,451 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.