Target Price Playground
SHOP
$122.54
๐ข
SHOP IV: 60.9% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $122.54 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $115 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$331 (2.5%) on $13,169 risked, vs +$1,246 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $12,254. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $135 by Sep 18
+$331
+2.5% on $13,169 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,669
Put floors you at $115
Break-even
$131.69
+7.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.99 / -8.72 / 20.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 (-20%) | -$1,234 | -$1,380 | -$1,554 | -$1,669 |
| $104 (-15%) | -$1,000 | -$1,176 | -$1,407 | -$1,669 |
| $110 (-10%) | -$715 | -$911 | -$1,181 | -$1,669 |
| $116 (-5%) | -$381 | -$587 | -$874 | -$1,528 |
| $120 (-2%) | -$157 | -$365 | -$650 | -$1,160 |
| $123 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$207 | -$487 | -$915 |
| $125 (+2%) | +$163 | -$41 | -$313 | -$670 |
| $129 (+5%) | +$421 | +$223 | -$33 | -$302 |
| $135 (+10%) โ target | +$893 | +$710 | +$491 | +$331 |
| $141 (+15%) | +$1,364 | +$1,199 | +$1,018 | +$923 |
| $147 (+20%) | +$1,878 | +$1,733 | +$1,590 | +$1,536 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.