Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 85.8% โ LOW
(-32.3% vs 30d avg of 126.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $940 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1070 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $170.44 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $980 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $130.0 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $940 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$4,956 (122.6%) on $4,044 risked, vs $-13,023 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 10.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $940. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $940 by Aug 21
+$4,956
+122.6% on $4,044 risked
Max Profit
+$4,956
If the stock โค $980 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$4,044
Net debit
Break-even
$1029.56
-3.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.57 / -10.67 / 8.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | +$2,573 | +$2,803 | +$3,314 | +$4,956 |
| $910 (-15%) | +$2,079 | +$2,221 | +$2,583 | +$4,956 |
| $940 (-12%) โ target | +$1,794 | +$1,878 | +$2,127 | +$4,956 |
| $963 (-10%) | +$1,576 | +$1,613 | +$1,765 | +$4,956 |
| $1017 (-5%) | +$1,076 | +$1,001 | +$913 | +$1,284 |
| $1049 (-2%) | +$782 | +$640 | +$407 | -$1,927 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | +$590 | +$404 | +$78 | -$4,044 |
| $1092 (+2%) | +$400 | +$173 | -$242 | -$4,044 |
| $1124 (+5%) | +$124 | -$163 | -$699 | -$4,044 |
| $1177 (+10%) | -$316 | -$690 | -$1,390 | -$4,044 |
| $1231 (+15%) | -$726 | -$1,170 | -$1,981 | -$4,044 |
| $1284 (+20%) | -$1,104 | -$1,601 | -$2,470 | -$4,044 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.