Target Price Playground
STX
$850.24
๐ข
STX IV: 75.7% โ LOW
(-40.3% vs 30d avg of 126.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $950 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $850 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $102.5 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $920 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $72.6 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $950 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$4,010 (134.1%) on $2,990 risked, vs +$9,976 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $85,024. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $950. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $950 by Oct 16
+$4,010
+134.1% on $2,990 risked
Max Profit
+$4,010
If the stock โฅ $920 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,990
Net debit
Break-even
$879.90
+3.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.79 / -3.24 / -5.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $680 (-20%) | -$1,839 | -$2,084 | -$2,532 | -$2,990 |
| $723 (-15%) | -$1,474 | -$1,693 | -$2,158 | -$2,990 |
| $765 (-10%) | -$1,076 | -$1,241 | -$1,644 | -$2,990 |
| $808 (-5%) | -$657 | -$747 | -$1,013 | -$2,990 |
| $833 (-2%) | -$401 | -$439 | -$595 | -$2,990 |
| $850 (0%) โ spot | -$230 | -$232 | -$307 | -$2,966 |
| $867 (+2%) | -$59 | -$25 | -$15 | -$1,266 |
| $893 (+5%) | +$194 | +$284 | +$422 | +$1,285 |
| $935 (+10%) | +$605 | +$783 | +$1,122 | +$4,010 |
| $950 (+12%) โ target | +$743 | +$949 | +$1,351 | +$4,010 |
| $978 (+15%) | +$995 | +$1,251 | +$1,756 | +$4,010 |
| $1020 (+20%) | +$1,359 | +$1,679 | +$2,300 | +$4,010 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.