Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 85.8% โ LOW
(-32.3% vs 30d avg of 126.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1200 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1070 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $173.5 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $1160 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $128.1 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $1200 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$4,460 (98.2%) on $4,540 risked, vs +$12,977 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 8.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $1200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $1200 by Aug 21
+$4,460
+98.2% on $4,540 risked
Max Profit
+$4,460
If the stock โฅ $1160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$4,540
Net debit
Break-even
$1115.40
+4.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.34 / -2.55 / -7.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | -$2,831 | -$3,115 | -$3,671 | -$4,540 |
| $910 (-15%) | -$2,407 | -$2,642 | -$3,166 | -$4,540 |
| $963 (-10%) | -$1,960 | -$2,122 | -$2,539 | -$4,540 |
| $1017 (-5%) | -$1,500 | -$1,572 | -$1,820 | -$4,540 |
| $1049 (-2%) | -$1,223 | -$1,234 | -$1,360 | -$4,540 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | -$1,038 | -$1,009 | -$1,048 | -$4,517 |
| $1092 (+2%) | -$854 | -$784 | -$733 | -$2,377 |
| $1124 (+5%) | -$582 | -$449 | -$264 | +$834 |
| $1177 (+10%) | -$138 | +$94 | +$494 | +$4,460 |
| $1200 (+12%) โ target | +$45 | +$317 | +$801 | +$4,460 |
| $1231 (+15%) | +$286 | +$609 | +$1,196 | +$4,460 |
| $1284 (+20%) | +$688 | +$1,090 | +$1,823 | +$4,460 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.