Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 86.0% โ LOW
(-31.8% vs 30d avg of 126.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1160 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1070.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1160 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $136.1 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $1160 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$22,587 (24.2%) on $93,413 risked, vs +$8,977 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $1160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $1160 by Aug 21
+$22,587
+24.2% on $93,413 risked
Max Profit
+$22,587
If the stock โฅ $1160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$93,413
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$934.13
-12.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.79 / 132.21 / -180.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | -$12,204 | -$10,390 | -$8,616 | -$7,795 |
| $910 (-15%) | -$8,451 | -$6,289 | -$3,956 | -$2,443 |
| $963 (-10%) | -$5,003 | -$2,526 | +$353 | +$2,908 |
| $1017 (-5%) | -$1,862 | +$884 | +$4,247 | +$8,259 |
| $1049 (-2%) | -$120 | +$2,760 | +$6,366 | +$11,470 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | +$981 | +$3,939 | +$7,684 | +$13,610 |
| $1092 (+2%) | +$2,037 | +$5,062 | +$8,926 | +$15,750 |
| $1124 (+5%) | +$3,537 | +$6,645 | +$10,648 | +$18,961 |
| $1160 (+8%) โ target | +$5,114 | +$8,288 | +$12,391 | +$22,587 |
| $1177 (+10%) | +$5,822 | +$9,018 | +$13,147 | +$22,587 |
| $1231 (+15%) | +$7,852 | +$11,080 | +$15,209 | +$22,587 |
| $1284 (+20%) | +$9,650 | +$12,857 | +$16,877 | +$22,587 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.