Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-32.0% vs 30d avg of 127.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $940 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1070 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $170.44 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $940 by Aug 21: the long put returns $-4,044 (-23.7%) on $17,044 risked, vs $-13,023 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $940. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $940 by Aug 21
$-4,044
-23.7% on $17,044 risked
Max Profit
+$89,956
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$17,044
Premium paid
Break-even
$899.56
-15.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.63 / -127.52 / 173.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | +$9,615 | +$7,791 | +$5,737 | +$4,338 |
| $910 (-15%) | +$6,286 | +$4,163 | +$1,582 | -$1,014 |
| $940 (-12%) โ target | +$4,548 | +$2,280 | -$564 | -$4,044 |
| $963 (-10%) | +$3,287 | +$921 | -$2,100 | -$6,365 |
| $1017 (-5%) | +$605 | -$1,938 | -$5,274 | -$11,716 |
| $1049 (-2%) | -$858 | -$3,475 | -$6,933 | -$14,927 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | -$1,775 | -$4,429 | -$7,938 | -$17,044 |
| $1092 (+2%) | -$2,647 | -$5,327 | -$8,865 | -$17,044 |
| $1124 (+5%) | -$3,874 | -$6,574 | -$10,117 | -$17,044 |
| $1177 (+10%) | -$5,714 | -$8,404 | -$11,857 | -$17,044 |
| $1231 (+15%) | -$7,320 | -$9,950 | -$13,216 | -$17,044 |
| $1284 (+20%) | -$8,715 | -$11,246 | -$14,257 | -$17,044 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.