Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-32.0% vs 30d avg of 127.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1180 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1070.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $1020 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $138.7 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $1180 by Aug 21: the protective put returns $-2,893 (-2.4%) on $120,893 risked, vs +$10,977 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $1180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $1180 by Aug 21
$-2,893
-2.4% on $120,893 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$18,893
Put floors you at $1020
Break-even
$1208.93
+12.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.11 / -120.98 / 169.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | -$12,377 | -$14,343 | -$16,701 | -$18,893 |
| $910 (-15%) | -$10,087 | -$12,308 | -$15,125 | -$18,893 |
| $963 (-10%) | -$7,462 | -$9,870 | -$13,021 | -$18,893 |
| $1017 (-5%) | -$4,519 | -$7,043 | -$10,381 | -$18,893 |
| $1049 (-2%) | -$2,608 | -$5,170 | -$8,549 | -$16,010 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | -$1,278 | -$3,852 | -$7,230 | -$13,870 |
| $1092 (+2%) | +$95 | -$2,482 | -$5,837 | -$11,730 |
| $1124 (+5%) | +$2,233 | -$330 | -$3,617 | -$8,519 |
| $1180 (+10%) โ target | +$6,190 | +$3,693 | +$609 | -$2,893 |
| $1231 (+15%) | +$9,967 | +$7,568 | +$4,732 | +$2,183 |
| $1284 (+20%) | +$14,138 | +$11,872 | +$9,336 | +$7,535 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.