Target Price Playground
STX
$1,070.23
๐ข
STX IV: 86.0% โ LOW
(-31.8% vs 30d avg of 126.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1230 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1070 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $166.94 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $1070 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $170.44 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $1230 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-17,738 (-52.6%) on $33,738 risked, vs +$15,977 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $107,023. Options give 3.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $1230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $1230 by Aug 21
$-17,738
-52.6% on $33,738 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$33,738
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$1407.38
+31.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.9 / -259.2 / 345.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $856 (-20%) | -$964 | -$4,887 | -$9,270 | -$12,356 |
| $910 (-15%) | -$2,270 | -$6,790 | -$12,227 | -$17,708 |
| $963 (-10%) | -$2,919 | -$7,924 | -$14,240 | -$23,059 |
| $1017 (-5%) | -$2,931 | -$8,291 | -$15,238 | -$28,410 |
| $1049 (-2%) | -$2,646 | -$8,155 | -$15,345 | -$31,621 |
| $1070 (0%) โ spot | -$2,340 | -$7,922 | -$15,215 | -$33,715 |
| $1092 (+2%) | -$1,944 | -$7,578 | -$14,930 | -$31,575 |
| $1124 (+5%) | -$1,187 | -$6,862 | -$14,222 | -$28,364 |
| $1177 (+10%) | +$483 | -$5,170 | -$12,351 | -$23,013 |
| $1230 (+15%) โ target | +$2,590 | -$2,947 | -$9,760 | -$17,738 |
| $1284 (+20%) | +$5,185 | -$151 | -$6,448 | -$12,310 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.