Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.75 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $165 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.7 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $160 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$995 (197.0%) on $505 risked, vs $-2,167 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 16.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $160 by Aug 21
+$995
+197.0% on $505 risked
Max Profit
+$995
If the stock โค $165 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$505
Net debit
Break-even
$174.95
-3.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.48 / -1.45 / 5.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$812 | +$877 | +$955 | +$995 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$659 | +$728 | +$840 | +$995 |
| $160 (-12%) โ target | +$542 | +$598 | +$703 | +$995 |
| $164 (-10%) | +$462 | +$505 | +$591 | +$995 |
| $173 (-5%) | +$245 | +$244 | +$243 | +$236 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$118 | +$91 | +$34 | -$309 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$38 | -$4 | -$89 | -$505 |
| $185 (+2%) | -$37 | -$91 | -$195 | -$505 |
| $191 (+5%) | -$137 | -$203 | -$318 | -$505 |
| $200 (+10%) | -$271 | -$340 | -$436 | -$505 |
| $209 (+15%) | -$365 | -$423 | -$484 | -$505 |
| $218 (+20%) | -$425 | -$467 | -$500 | -$505 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.