Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $195 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.8 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$860 (134.4%) on $640 risked, vs +$2,333 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 10.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21
+$860
+134.4% on $640 risked
Max Profit
+$860
If the stock โฅ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$640
Net debit
Break-even
$186.40
+2.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
21.42 / -1.16 / 2.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$584 | -$617 | -$638 | -$640 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$511 | -$565 | -$622 | -$640 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$391 | -$458 | -$556 | -$640 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$226 | -$283 | -$389 | -$640 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$112 | -$151 | -$232 | -$640 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | -$33 | -$56 | -$108 | -$473 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$48 | +$41 | +$23 | -$110 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$167 | +$186 | +$222 | +$435 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$351 | +$405 | +$508 | +$860 |
| $205 (+13%) โ target | +$443 | +$510 | +$628 | +$860 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$505 | +$578 | +$697 | +$860 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$624 | +$697 | +$794 | +$860 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.