Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $190 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$370 (2.3%) on $-370 credit (max loss $16,130), vs +$833 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$1,717 | -$1,650 | -$1,591 | -$1,596 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$1,077 | -$959 | -$817 | -$688 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$574 | -$429 | -$234 | +$220 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$210 | -$66 | +$119 | +$370 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$51 | +$80 | +$236 | +$370 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$33 | +$153 | +$285 | +$370 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$103 | +$210 | +$318 | +$370 |
| $190 (+5%) โ target | +$175 | +$265 | +$344 | +$370 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$274 | +$329 | +$365 | +$370 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$322 | +$354 | +$369 | +$370 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$347 | +$364 | +$370 | +$370 |