Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.67 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $195 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.8 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $195 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$1,913 (10.9%) on $17,587 risked, vs +$1,333 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $195 by Aug 21
+$1,913
+10.9% on $17,587 risked
Max Profit
+$1,913
If the stock โฅ $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,587
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$175.87
-3.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.09 / 7.66 / -27.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$3,073 | -$3,057 | -$3,053 | -$3,053 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$2,204 | -$2,164 | -$2,146 | -$2,145 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$1,383 | -$1,302 | -$1,247 | -$1,237 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$638 | -$504 | -$380 | -$328 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$238 | -$74 | +$102 | +$217 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$5 | +$188 | +$398 | +$580 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$230 | +$429 | +$668 | +$943 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$530 | +$746 | +$1,017 | +$1,488 |
| $195 (+7%) โ target | +$734 | +$957 | +$1,239 | +$1,913 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$936 | +$1,159 | +$1,439 | +$1,913 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$1,230 | +$1,438 | +$1,679 | +$1,913 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$1,434 | +$1,612 | +$1,793 | +$1,913 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.