Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.6% โ LOW
(-46.8% vs 30d avg of 55.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.8 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $175 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.6 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $175 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$547 (171.0%) on $320 risked, vs $-667 (-3.7%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 46.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $175 by Aug 21
+$547
+171.0% on $320 risked
Max Profit
+$541
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$320
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$187.49
+3.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.87 / 0.98 / 6.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$159 | +$162 | +$153 | +$125 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$168 | +$187 | +$200 | +$156 |
| $164 (-10%) | +$159 | +$193 | +$243 | +$259 |
| $173 (-5%) | +$127 | +$165 | +$234 | +$498 |
| $175 (-4%) โ target | +$114 | +$151 | +$219 | +$591 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$96 | +$130 | +$193 | +$424 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$72 | +$101 | +$152 | +$254 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$46 | +$68 | +$103 | +$113 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$4 | +$14 | +$23 | -$47 |
| $200 (+10%) | -$68 | -$77 | -$104 | -$206 |
| $209 (+15%) | -$134 | -$156 | -$199 | -$278 |
| $218 (+20%) | -$190 | -$217 | -$259 | -$306 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.