Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.9% โ LOW
(-49.1% vs 30d avg of 58.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$1,280 (104.9%) on $1,220 risked, vs +$2,333 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 8.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21
+$1,280
+104.9% on $1,220 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,220
Premium paid
Break-even
$192.20
+5.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.73 / -8.34 / 29.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$1,150 | -$1,195 | -$1,218 | -$1,220 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$1,041 | -$1,132 | -$1,202 | -$1,220 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$837 | -$981 | -$1,131 | -$1,220 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$512 | -$698 | -$925 | -$1,220 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$253 | -$453 | -$706 | -$1,220 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | -$54 | -$258 | -$515 | -$1,053 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$165 | -$38 | -$290 | -$690 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$530 | +$336 | +$106 | -$145 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$1,220 | +$1,054 | +$882 | +$764 |
| $205 (+13%) โ target | +$1,650 | +$1,503 | +$1,364 | +$1,280 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$1,991 | +$1,859 | +$1,741 | +$1,672 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$2,817 | +$2,715 | +$2,634 | +$2,580 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.