Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.75 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $160 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$1,125 (128.6%) on $875 risked, vs $-2,167 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 10.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $160 by Aug 21
+$1,125
+128.6% on $875 risked
Max Profit
+$17,125
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$875
Premium paid
Break-even
$171.25
-5.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.39 / -7.21 / 29.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$2,525 | +$2,523 | +$2,545 | +$2,591 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$1,729 | +$1,682 | +$1,654 | +$1,683 |
| $160 (-12%) โ target | +$1,286 | +$1,205 | +$1,130 | +$1,125 |
| $164 (-10%) | +$1,029 | +$928 | +$820 | +$775 |
| $173 (-5%) | +$448 | +$305 | +$120 | -$134 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$163 | +$6 | -$204 | -$679 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | -$2 | -$162 | -$377 | -$875 |
| $185 (+2%) | -$146 | -$305 | -$515 | -$875 |
| $191 (+5%) | -$327 | -$478 | -$665 | -$875 |
| $200 (+10%) | -$548 | -$671 | -$801 | -$875 |
| $209 (+15%) | -$688 | -$778 | -$853 | -$875 |
| $218 (+20%) | -$773 | -$832 | -$870 | -$875 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.