Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.6% โ LOW
(-46.8% vs 30d avg of 55.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.67 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$2,333 (12.8%) on $18,167 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $205 by Aug 21
+$2,333
+12.8% on $18,167 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$18,167
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$181.67
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$3,633 | -$3,633 | -$3,633 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$2,725 | -$2,725 | -$2,725 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$1,817 | -$1,817 | -$1,817 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$908 | -$908 | -$908 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$363 | -$363 | -$363 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$363 | +$363 | +$363 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$908 | +$908 | +$908 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$1,817 | +$1,817 | +$1,817 |
| $205 (+13%) โ target | +$2,333 | +$2,333 | +$2,333 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$2,725 | +$2,725 | +$2,725 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$3,633 | +$3,633 | +$3,633 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.