Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $181.67 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.6 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $200 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$1,173 (6.2%) on $18,827 risked, vs +$1,833 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $200 by Aug 21
+$1,173
+6.2% on $18,827 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,327
Put floors you at $175
Break-even
$188.27
+3.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.83 / -6.95 / 29.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | -$1,351 | -$1,371 | -$1,368 | -$1,327 |
| $154 (-15%) | -$1,197 | -$1,269 | -$1,331 | -$1,327 |
| $164 (-10%) | -$932 | -$1,054 | -$1,200 | -$1,327 |
| $173 (-5%) | -$535 | -$687 | -$889 | -$1,327 |
| $178 (-2%) | -$232 | -$388 | -$596 | -$1,023 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | -$5 | -$159 | -$358 | -$660 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$240 | +$93 | -$90 | -$297 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$641 | +$510 | +$359 | +$248 |
| $200 (+10%) โ target | +$1,395 | +$1,297 | +$1,206 | +$1,173 |
| $209 (+15%) | +$2,187 | +$2,121 | +$2,074 | +$2,065 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$3,037 | +$2,996 | +$2,975 | +$2,973 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.