Target Price Playground
TMUS
$181.67
๐ข
TMUS IV: 29.6% โ LOW
(-46.8% vs 30d avg of 55.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.75 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $210 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$1,005 (50.4%) on $1,995 risked, vs +$2,833 (15.6%) for 100 shares on $18,167. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $210 by Aug 21
+$1,005
+50.4% on $1,995 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,995
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$199.95
+10.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.62 / -15.79 / 59.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 (-20%) | +$1,485 | +$1,433 | +$1,427 | +$1,471 |
| $154 (-15%) | +$806 | +$661 | +$555 | +$563 |
| $164 (-10%) | +$317 | +$65 | -$201 | -$345 |
| $173 (-5%) | +$67 | -$269 | -$689 | -$1,254 |
| $178 (-2%) | +$42 | -$321 | -$792 | -$1,799 |
| $182 (0%) โ spot | +$76 | -$294 | -$773 | -$1,828 |
| $185 (+2%) | +$151 | -$217 | -$687 | -$1,465 |
| $191 (+5%) | +$332 | -$19 | -$444 | -$920 |
| $200 (+10%) | +$797 | +$501 | +$190 | -$11 |
| $210 (+16%) โ target | +$1,504 | +$1,283 | +$1,093 | +$1,005 |
| $218 (+20%) | +$2,157 | +$1,990 | +$1,865 | +$1,805 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.