Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.83 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $375 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.85 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $360 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,002 (133.6%) on $1,498 risked, vs $-4,776 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 11.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $360 by Sep 18
+$2,002
+133.6% on $1,498 risked
Max Profit
+$2,002
If the stock โค $375 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,498
Net debit
Break-even
$395.02
-3.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.84 / -2.63 / 12.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | +$1,352 | +$1,501 | +$1,752 | +$2,002 |
| $347 (-15%) | +$1,067 | +$1,193 | +$1,446 | +$2,002 |
| $360 (-12%) โ target | +$859 | +$954 | +$1,161 | +$2,002 |
| $367 (-10%) | +$747 | +$821 | +$991 | +$2,002 |
| $387 (-5%) | +$413 | +$419 | +$441 | +$765 |
| $400 (-2%) | +$215 | +$178 | +$103 | -$458 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$86 | +$22 | -$113 | -$1,274 |
| $416 (+2%) | -$39 | -$128 | -$317 | -$1,498 |
| $428 (+5%) | -$217 | -$339 | -$591 | -$1,498 |
| $449 (+10%) | -$486 | -$647 | -$951 | -$1,498 |
| $469 (+15%) | -$716 | -$894 | -$1,192 | -$1,498 |
| $489 (+20%) | -$905 | -$1,083 | -$1,339 | -$1,498 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.