Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.05 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.86 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $400 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,781 (146.1%) on $1,219 risked, vs +$4,342 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 12.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $400 by Nov 20
+$1,781
+146.1% on $1,219 risked
Max Profit
+$1,781
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,219
Net debit
Break-even
$367.19
+2.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.61 / -0.88 / 4.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$974 | -$1,075 | -$1,187 | -$1,219 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$801 | -$923 | -$1,104 | -$1,219 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$575 | -$693 | -$913 | -$1,219 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$308 | -$393 | -$583 | -$1,219 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$135 | -$190 | -$324 | -$1,219 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$17 | -$48 | -$133 | -$1,061 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$102 | +$95 | +$65 | -$348 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$278 | +$309 | +$365 | +$722 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$559 | +$648 | +$828 | +$1,781 |
| $400 (+12%) โ target | +$674 | +$783 | +$1,002 | +$1,781 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$813 | +$944 | +$1,195 | +$1,781 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$1,032 | +$1,185 | +$1,450 | +$1,781 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.