Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.8 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.78 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,798 (149.6%) on $1,202 risked, vs +$4,724 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18
+$1,798
+149.6% on $1,202 risked
Max Profit
+$1,798
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,202
Net debit
Break-even
$422.02
+3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.91 / -0.92 / -3.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$909 | -$1,017 | -$1,152 | -$1,202 |
| $347 (-15%) | -$738 | -$858 | -$1,053 | -$1,202 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$524 | -$636 | -$855 | -$1,202 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$280 | -$359 | -$541 | -$1,202 |
| $400 (-2%) | -$124 | -$175 | -$304 | -$1,202 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | -$18 | -$48 | -$132 | -$1,202 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$88 | +$81 | +$47 | -$610 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$246 | +$273 | +$318 | +$613 |
| $449 (+10%) | +$500 | +$581 | +$745 | +$1,798 |
| $455 (+12%) โ target | +$577 | +$673 | +$866 | +$1,798 |
| $469 (+15%) | +$734 | +$857 | +$1,100 | +$1,798 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$941 | +$1,092 | +$1,366 | +$1,798 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.