Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.28 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.5 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $385 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,627 (91.5%) on $1,778 risked, vs $-2,276 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 16.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $385 by Sep 18
+$1,627
+91.5% on $1,778 risked
Max Profit
+$1,570
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,734
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$415.08
+1.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.33 / 1.91 / 15.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | +$557 | +$653 | +$759 | +$690 |
| $347 (-15%) | +$473 | +$597 | +$786 | +$877 |
| $367 (-10%) | +$346 | +$479 | +$719 | +$1,249 |
| $385 (-6%) โ target | +$203 | +$323 | +$555 | +$1,785 |
| $400 (-2%) | +$69 | +$167 | +$356 | +$925 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | -$11 | +$71 | +$225 | +$511 |
| $416 (+2%) | -$93 | -$30 | +$84 | +$144 |
| $428 (+5%) | -$220 | -$186 | -$139 | -$322 |
| $449 (+10%) | -$433 | -$449 | -$510 | -$899 |
| $469 (+15%) | -$640 | -$700 | -$843 | -$1,272 |
| $489 (+20%) | -$832 | -$926 | -$1,117 | -$1,500 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.