Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.8 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18: the long call returns +$1,120 (33.1%) on $3,380 risked, vs +$4,724 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18
+$1,120
+33.1% on $3,380 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,380
Premium paid
Break-even
$443.80
+8.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.94 / -26.02 / 70.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$2,757 | -$3,061 | -$3,315 | -$3,380 |
| $347 (-15%) | -$2,308 | -$2,734 | -$3,174 | -$3,380 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$1,678 | -$2,216 | -$2,860 | -$3,380 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$853 | -$1,476 | -$2,285 | -$3,380 |
| $400 (-2%) | -$263 | -$919 | -$1,791 | -$3,380 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$169 | -$500 | -$1,396 | -$3,380 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$631 | -$45 | -$948 | -$2,788 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$1,378 | +$703 | -$186 | -$1,565 |
| $449 (+10%) | +$2,756 | +$2,110 | +$1,304 | +$474 |
| $455 (+12%) โ target | +$3,224 | +$2,593 | +$1,824 | +$1,120 |
| $469 (+15%) | +$4,279 | +$3,688 | +$3,007 | +$2,512 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$5,926 | +$5,402 | +$4,857 | +$4,551 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.