Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $450 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $407.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.5 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $450 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$2,274 (5.3%) on $42,726 risked, vs +$4,224 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $450. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $450 by Sep 18
+$2,274
+5.3% on $42,726 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,226
Put floors you at $385
Break-even
$427.26
+4.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.71 / -20.18 / 67.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$3,521 | -$3,821 | -$4,134 | -$4,226 |
| $347 (-15%) | -$2,877 | -$3,289 | -$3,803 | -$4,226 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$2,025 | -$2,517 | -$3,188 | -$4,226 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$965 | -$1,494 | -$2,232 | -$3,989 |
| $400 (-2%) | -$234 | -$765 | -$1,496 | -$2,766 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$291 | -$234 | -$943 | -$1,950 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$844 | +$331 | -$344 | -$1,134 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$1,720 | +$1,234 | +$626 | +$89 |
| $450 (+10%) โ target | +$3,413 | +$2,993 | +$2,527 | +$2,274 |
| $469 (+15%) | +$4,989 | +$4,635 | +$4,290 | +$4,166 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$6,777 | +$6,494 | +$6,259 | +$6,205 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.