Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.8 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.83 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $470 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns $-563 (-8.6%) on $6,563 risked, vs +$6,224 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $470 by Sep 18
$-563
-8.6% on $6,563 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$6,563
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$344.37
-15.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.37 / -47.85 / 140.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | +$2,719 | +$2,223 | +$1,829 | +$1,816 |
| $347 (-15%) | +$1,579 | +$838 | +$72 | -$223 |
| $367 (-10%) | +$801 | -$165 | -$1,336 | -$2,261 |
| $387 (-5%) | +$412 | -$724 | -$2,226 | -$4,300 |
| $400 (-2%) | +$369 | -$832 | -$2,461 | -$5,523 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$417 | -$811 | -$2,487 | -$6,339 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$525 | -$717 | -$2,408 | -$5,971 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$796 | -$444 | -$2,105 | -$4,748 |
| $449 (+10%) | +$1,512 | +$332 | -$1,164 | -$2,709 |
| $470 (+15%) โ target | +$2,582 | +$1,516 | +$285 | -$563 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$3,775 | +$2,839 | +$1,863 | +$1,368 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.