Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
TSLA
$407.76
๐ŸŸข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ€” LOW (-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $430 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

68d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $375 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.85 ยท ฮ” -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $408 Target $430 $285 $408 $530
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If TSLA hits $430 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,685 (4.7%) on $-1,685 credit (max loss $35,815), vs +$2,224 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 0.9ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if TSLA hits $430 by Sep 18
+$1,685
+4.7% on $35,815 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,685
If the stock โ‰ฅ $375 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$35,815
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$358.15
-12.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
28.73 / 19.19 / -58.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

TSLA Price Today Aug 3 Aug 26 Sep 18 (exp)
$326 (-20%) -$4,124 -$3,783 -$3,393 -$3,194
$347 (-15%) -$2,820 -$2,379 -$1,800 -$1,155
$367 (-10%) -$1,732 -$1,230 -$533 +$883
$387 (-5%) -$852 -$333 +$382 +$1,685
$400 (-2%) -$417 +$92 +$773 +$1,685
$408 (0%) โ† spot -$162 +$333 +$977 +$1,685
$416 (+2%) +$67 +$544 +$1,143 +$1,685
$430 (+5%) โ† target +$406 +$842 +$1,352 +$1,685
$449 (+10%) +$757 +$1,132 +$1,518 +$1,685
$469 (+15%) +$1,042 +$1,345 +$1,612 +$1,685
$489 (+20%) +$1,246 +$1,481 +$1,655 +$1,685
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.