Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.83 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $360 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,817 (57.1%) on $3,183 risked, vs $-4,776 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 4.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $360 by Sep 18
+$1,817
+57.1% on $3,183 risked
Max Profit
+$37,817
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,183
Premium paid
Break-even
$378.17
-7.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.57 / -21.83 / 70.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | +$5,476 | +$5,284 | +$5,144 | +$5,196 |
| $347 (-15%) | +$3,887 | +$3,572 | +$3,247 | +$3,157 |
| $360 (-12%) โ target | +$2,939 | +$2,548 | +$2,088 | +$1,817 |
| $367 (-10%) | +$2,479 | +$2,051 | +$1,523 | +$1,119 |
| $387 (-5%) | +$1,265 | +$752 | +$59 | -$920 |
| $400 (-2%) | +$632 | +$86 | -$670 | -$2,143 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$248 | -$311 | -$1,091 | -$2,959 |
| $416 (+2%) | -$106 | -$672 | -$1,460 | -$3,183 |
| $428 (+5%) | -$582 | -$1,147 | -$1,920 | -$3,183 |
| $449 (+10%) | -$1,243 | -$1,779 | -$2,469 | -$3,183 |
| $469 (+15%) | -$1,758 | -$2,239 | -$2,804 | -$3,183 |
| $489 (+20%) | -$2,151 | -$2,564 | -$2,993 | -$3,183 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.