Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $407.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18: the long stock returns +$4,724 (11.6%) on $40,776 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Sep 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $455 by Sep 18
+$4,724
+11.6% on $40,776 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$40,776
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$407.76
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 11 | Sep 10 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$8,155 | -$8,155 | -$8,155 |
| $347 (-15%) | -$6,116 | -$6,116 | -$6,116 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$4,078 | -$4,078 | -$4,078 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$2,039 | -$2,039 | -$2,039 |
| $400 (-2%) | -$816 | -$816 | -$816 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$816 | +$816 | +$816 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$2,039 | +$2,039 | +$2,039 |
| $449 (+10%) | +$4,078 | +$4,078 | +$4,078 |
| $455 (+12%) โ target | +$4,724 | +$4,724 | +$4,724 |
| $469 (+15%) | +$6,116 | +$6,116 | +$6,116 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$8,155 | +$8,155 | +$8,155 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.