Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.1 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $415 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.0 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $395 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$2,290 (189.3%) on $1,210 risked, vs $-5,663 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 15.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $395 by Aug 21
+$2,290
+189.3% on $1,210 risked
Max Profit
+$2,290
If the stock โค $415 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,210
Net debit
Break-even
$437.90
-3.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.1 / -3.19 / 16.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | +$1,921 | +$2,064 | +$2,223 | +$2,290 |
| $384 (-15%) | +$1,585 | +$1,749 | +$2,006 | +$2,290 |
| $395 (-13%) โ target | +$1,374 | +$1,524 | +$1,789 | +$2,290 |
| $406 (-10%) | +$1,132 | +$1,249 | +$1,476 | +$2,290 |
| $429 (-5%) | +$619 | +$637 | +$672 | +$885 |
| $443 (-2%) | +$314 | +$266 | +$165 | -$470 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | +$120 | +$34 | -$143 | -$1,210 |
| $461 (+2%) | -$63 | -$180 | -$411 | -$1,210 |
| $474 (+5%) | -$309 | -$459 | -$725 | -$1,210 |
| $497 (+10%) | -$639 | -$801 | -$1,032 | -$1,210 |
| $519 (+15%) | -$869 | -$1,008 | -$1,157 | -$1,210 |
| $542 (+20%) | -$1,018 | -$1,119 | -$1,197 | -$1,210 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.