Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.8% โ LOW
(-60.0% vs 30d avg of 79.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.6 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $490 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,460 (159.7%) on $1,540 risked, vs +$5,837 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $510. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21
+$2,460
+159.7% on $1,540 risked
Max Profit
+$2,460
If the stock โฅ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,540
Net debit
Break-even
$465.40
+3.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.62 / -4.79 / 4.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$1,418 | -$1,493 | -$1,536 | -$1,540 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$1,243 | -$1,377 | -$1,505 | -$1,540 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$945 | -$1,120 | -$1,364 | -$1,540 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$523 | -$683 | -$974 | -$1,540 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$224 | -$343 | -$584 | -$1,540 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | -$12 | -$94 | -$268 | -$1,377 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$204 | +$166 | +$78 | -$474 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$527 | +$558 | +$614 | +$881 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$1,033 | +$1,164 | +$1,415 | +$2,460 |
| $510 (+13%) โ target | +$1,296 | +$1,465 | +$1,770 | +$2,460 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$1,462 | +$1,649 | +$1,964 | +$2,460 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$1,795 | +$1,990 | +$2,258 | +$2,460 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.