Target Price Playground
VRTX
$540.26
๐ข
VRTX IV: 30.0% โ LOW
(-67.2% vs 30d avg of 91.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $540 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.3 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $580 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.88 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,758 (78.4%) on $2,242 risked, vs +$6,974 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $54,026. Options give 6.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $610. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $610 by Oct 16
+$1,758
+78.4% on $2,242 risked
Max Profit
+$1,758
If the stock โฅ $580 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,242
Net debit
Break-even
$562.42
+4.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
22.82 / -5.44 / 5.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $432 (-20%) | -$2,134 | -$2,201 | -$2,239 | -$2,242 |
| $459 (-15%) | -$1,964 | -$2,092 | -$2,215 | -$2,242 |
| $486 (-10%) | -$1,663 | -$1,834 | -$2,084 | -$2,242 |
| $513 (-5%) | -$1,226 | -$1,383 | -$1,688 | -$2,242 |
| $529 (-2%) | -$913 | -$1,028 | -$1,277 | -$2,242 |
| $540 (0%) โ spot | -$691 | -$766 | -$940 | -$2,216 |
| $551 (+2%) | -$465 | -$495 | -$571 | -$1,135 |
| $567 (+5%) | -$127 | -$86 | -$3 | +$485 |
| $594 (+10%) | +$397 | +$536 | +$819 | +$1,758 |
| $610 (+13%) โ target | +$663 | +$838 | +$1,165 | +$1,758 |
| $621 (+15%) | +$833 | +$1,021 | +$1,348 | +$1,758 |
| $648 (+20%) | +$1,161 | +$1,349 | +$1,608 | +$1,758 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.