Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.47 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $490 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,473 (162.0%) on $1,527 risked, vs +$5,837 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 12.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $510. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21
+$2,473
+162.0% on $1,527 risked
Max Profit
+$2,473
If the stock โฅ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,527
Net debit
Break-even
$465.27
+3.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.98 / -5.04 / 4.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$1,408 | -$1,481 | -$1,523 | -$1,527 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$1,234 | -$1,367 | -$1,493 | -$1,527 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$937 | -$1,112 | -$1,355 | -$1,527 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$514 | -$674 | -$965 | -$1,527 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$213 | -$333 | -$575 | -$1,527 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$83 | -$258 | -$1,364 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$217 | +$178 | +$90 | -$461 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$542 | +$573 | +$629 | +$894 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$1,051 | +$1,181 | +$1,433 | +$2,473 |
| $510 (+13%) โ target | +$1,314 | +$1,484 | +$1,788 | +$2,473 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$1,481 | +$1,668 | +$1,982 | +$2,473 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$1,814 | +$2,008 | +$2,275 | +$2,473 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.