Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $490 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $451.63 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $490 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.2 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $490 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,057 (11.5%) on $43,943 risked, vs +$3,837 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $490 by Aug 21
+$5,057
+11.5% on $43,943 risked
Max Profit
+$5,057
If the stock โฅ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43,943
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$439.43
-2.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.92 / 17.02 / -70.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$7,846 | -$7,819 | -$7,813 | -$7,813 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$5,662 | -$5,586 | -$5,555 | -$5,554 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$3,581 | -$3,414 | -$3,311 | -$3,296 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$1,670 | -$1,378 | -$1,124 | -$1,038 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$635 | -$263 | +$113 | +$317 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$422 | +$884 | +$1,220 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$589 | +$1,055 | +$1,597 | +$2,123 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$1,381 | +$1,898 | +$2,536 | +$3,478 |
| $490 (+8%) โ target | +$2,165 | +$2,712 | +$3,405 | +$5,057 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$2,457 | +$3,008 | +$3,701 | +$5,057 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$3,247 | +$3,770 | +$4,388 | +$5,057 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$3,795 | +$4,248 | +$4,723 | +$5,057 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.