Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
VRTX
$451.63
๐ŸŸข
VRTX IV: 31.9% โ€” LOW (-60.8% vs 30d avg of 81.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $430 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $450 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.01 ยท ฮ” -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.99 ยท ฮ” -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $452 Target $430 $316 $452 $587
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If VRTX hits $430 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,534 (139.2%) on $1,102 risked, vs $-2,163 (-4.8%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 29.0ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if VRTX hits $430 by Aug 21
+$1,534
+139.2% on $1,102 risked
Max Profit
+$1,467
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,101
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$459.51
+1.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-12.1 / 1.72 / 21.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

VRTX Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$361 (-20%) +$759 +$795 +$802 +$755
$384 (-15%) +$713 +$792 +$869 +$817
$406 (-10%) +$600 +$708 +$873 +$1,035
$430 (-5%) โ† target +$405 +$505 +$683 +$1,606
$443 (-2%) +$274 +$352 +$490 +$851
$452 (0%) โ† spot +$173 +$229 +$323 +$405
$461 (+2%) +$68 +$101 +$144 +$35
$474 (+5%) -$92 -$95 -$126 -$387
$497 (+10%) -$345 -$400 -$516 -$806
$519 (+15%) -$564 -$648 -$787 -$995
$542 (+20%) -$737 -$827 -$947 -$1,068
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.