Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.47 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$3,253 (118.5%) on $2,747 risked, vs +$5,837 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 9.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $510. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21
+$3,253
+118.5% on $2,747 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,747
Premium paid
Break-even
$477.47
+5.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.05 / -22.06 / 74.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$2,594 | -$2,695 | -$2,743 | -$2,747 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$2,346 | -$2,556 | -$2,712 | -$2,747 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$1,872 | -$2,214 | -$2,560 | -$2,747 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$1,102 | -$1,555 | -$2,099 | -$2,747 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$481 | -$973 | -$1,591 | -$2,747 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$505 | -$1,142 | -$2,584 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$531 | +$26 | -$605 | -$1,681 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$1,419 | +$933 | +$351 | -$326 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$3,110 | +$2,690 | +$2,247 | +$1,932 |
| $510 (+13%) โ target | +$4,199 | +$3,828 | +$3,471 | +$3,253 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$5,008 | +$4,672 | +$4,368 | +$4,190 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$7,053 | +$6,793 | +$6,585 | +$6,449 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.