Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $450 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.1 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $395 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$3,390 (160.7%) on $2,110 risked, vs $-5,663 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $45,163. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if VRTX is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $395 by Aug 21
+$3,390
+160.7% on $2,110 risked
Max Profit
+$42,890
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,110
Premium paid
Break-even
$428.90
-5.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.16 / -16.66 / 74.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | +$6,559 | +$6,574 | +$6,642 | +$6,760 |
| $384 (-15%) | +$4,548 | +$4,454 | +$4,414 | +$4,501 |
| $395 (-13%) โ target | +$3,637 | +$3,478 | +$3,353 | +$3,390 |
| $406 (-10%) | +$2,764 | +$2,538 | +$2,308 | +$2,243 |
| $429 (-5%) | +$1,277 | +$940 | +$511 | -$15 |
| $443 (-2%) | +$543 | +$166 | -$336 | -$1,370 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | +$120 | -$269 | -$790 | -$2,110 |
| $461 (+2%) | -$252 | -$641 | -$1,155 | -$2,110 |
| $474 (+5%) | -$719 | -$1,089 | -$1,555 | -$2,110 |
| $497 (+10%) | -$1,286 | -$1,590 | -$1,917 | -$2,110 |
| $519 (+15%) | -$1,646 | -$1,866 | -$2,054 | -$2,110 |
| $542 (+20%) | -$1,860 | -$2,004 | -$2,096 | -$2,110 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.