Target Price Playground
VRTX
$451.63
๐ข
VRTX IV: 31.3% โ LOW
(-59.8% vs 30d avg of 78.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $451.63 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$5,837 (12.9%) on $45,163 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if VRTX hits $510 by Aug 21
+$5,837
+12.9% on $45,163 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$45,163
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$451.63
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| VRTX Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$9,033 | -$9,033 | -$9,033 |
| $384 (-15%) | -$6,774 | -$6,774 | -$6,774 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$4,516 | -$4,516 | -$4,516 |
| $429 (-5%) | -$2,258 | -$2,258 | -$2,258 |
| $443 (-2%) | -$903 | -$903 | -$903 |
| $452 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $461 (+2%) | +$903 | +$903 | +$903 |
| $474 (+5%) | +$2,258 | +$2,258 | +$2,258 |
| $497 (+10%) | +$4,516 | +$4,516 | +$4,516 |
| $510 (+13%) โ target | +$5,837 | +$5,837 | +$5,837 |
| $519 (+15%) | +$6,774 | +$6,774 | +$6,774 |
| $542 (+20%) | +$9,033 | +$9,033 | +$9,033 |
Uses VRTX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.